What is the cost-effectiveness of menu calorie labelling on reducing obesity-associated cancer burdens? An economic evaluation of a federal policy intervention among 235 million adults in the USA.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of menu calorie labelling on reducing obesity-associated cancer burdens in the USA. DESIGN: Cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov cohort state-transition model. SETTING: Policy intervention. PARTICIPANTS: A modelled population of 235 million adults aged ≥20 years in 2015-2016. INTERVENTIONS: The impact of menu calorie labelling on reducing 13 obesity-associated cancers among US adults over a lifetime was evaluated for: (1) effects on consumer behaviours; and (2) additional effects on industry reformulation. The model integrated nationally representative demographics, calorie intake from restaurants, cancer statistics and estimates on associations of policy with calorie intake, dietary change with body mass index (BMI) change, BMI with cancer rates, and policy and healthcare costs from published literature. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Averted new cancer cases and cancer deaths and net costs (in 2015 US$) among the total population and demographic subgroups were determined. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios from societal and healthcare perspectives were assessed and compared with the threshold of US$150 000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses incorporated uncertainty in input parameters and generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). RESULTS: Considering consumer behaviour alone, this policy was associated with 28 000 (95% UI 16 300 to 39 100) new cancer cases and 16 700 (9610 to 23 600) cancer deaths averted, 111 000 (64 800 to 158 000) QALYs gained, and US$1480 (884 to 2080) million saved in cancer-related medical costs among US adults. The policy was associated with net cost savings of US$1460 (864 to 2060) million and US$1350 (486 to 2260) million from healthcare and societal perspectives, respectively. Additional industry reformulation would substantially increase policy impact. Greater health gains and cost savings were predicted among young adults, Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Study findings suggest that menu calorie labelling is associated with lower obesity-related cancer burdens and reduced healthcare costs. Policymakers may prioritise nutrition policies for cancer prevention in the USA.

Disparities in substance use treatment retention: An exploration of reasons for discharge from publicly funded treatment.

Although Delaware is the seventh smallest state in the country (including Washington, D.C.) in terms of population size, it has the second highest drug overdose death rate. The Delaware Division of Substance Abuse and Mental Health has increased attention in identifying disparities in treatment outcomes. We explored reasons for discharge from publicly-funded treatment in Delaware with special attention to populations at risk for health inequities, with a focus on covariates of treatment non-completion. Using secondary data collected from publicly-funded treatment providers, we analyzed data from individuals that were admitted to substance use treatment between 2015 and 2019 and had been discharged in 2019. We did this by using logistic and multinomial regression, focusing on non-completion treatment outcomes such as failure to meet requirements, loss of contact, and treatment refusal. Clients who were Black or African American, compared to white clients, were more likely to be lost contact with, administratively discharged, or marked as failing to meet treatment requirements than having a completed treatment discharge. Women were 30% less likely than men to have "failed to meet treatment requirements" compared to completing treatment. Further investigation is needed into these patterns. While treatment quality cannot be assessed using this data, the results point to a need for closer study of disparities in treatment related to race, ethnicity, gender, employment, criminal justice involvement, and type of drug used. Treatment providers should be made aware of culturally informed care, as well as client-created goals, in order to reduce disparities in exit from treatment.

Valuing the cross-sector benefits from improving youth health to drive investment in place-based preventive interventions in the US: A simulation modeling study.

Healthcare payment reform has not produced incentives for investing in place-based, or population-level, upstream preventive interventions. This article uses economic modeling to estimate the long-term benefits to different sectors associated with improvements in population health indicators in childhood. This information can motivate policymakers to invest in prevention and provide guidance for cross-sector contracting to align incentives for implementing place-based preventive interventions. A benefit-cost model developed by the Washington State Institute for Public Policy was used to estimate total and sector-specific benefits expected from improvements to nine different population health indicators at ages 17 and 18. The magnitudes of improvement used in the model were comparable to those that could be achieved by high-quality implementation of evidence-based population-level preventive interventions. Benefits accruing throughout the lifecycle and over a ten-year time horizon were modelled. Intervention effect sizes of 0.10 and 0.20 demonstrated substantial long-term benefits for eight of the nine outcomes measured. At an effect size of 0.10, the median lifecycle benefit per participant across the ten indicators was $3080 (ranged: $93 to $14,220). The median over a 10-year time horizon was $242 (range: $14 to $1357). Benefits at effect sizes of 0.20 were approximately double. Policymakers may be able to build will for additional investment based on these cross-sector returns and communities may be able to capture these cross-sector benefits through contracting to better align incentives for implementing and sustaining place-based preventive interventions.

Introducing the MAVEN Leadership Training Initiative to diversify the scientific workforce.

Addressing gender and racial-ethnic disparities at all career stages is a priority for the research community. In this article, we focus on efforts to encourage mid-career women, particularly women of color, to move into leadership positions in science and science policy. We highlight the need to strengthen leadership skills for the critical period immediately following promotion to associate/tenured professor - when formal career development efforts taper off while institutional demands escalate - and describe a program called MAVEN that has been designed to teach leadership skills to mid-career women scientists, particularly those from underrepresented groups.

Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Nutrition Facts Added-Sugar Labeling and Obesity-Associated Cancer Rates in the US.

Importance: Obesity-associated cancer burdens are increasing in the US. Nutrition policies, such as the Nutrition Facts added-sugar labeling, may reduce obesity-associated cancer rates. Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of Nutrition Facts added-sugar labeling and obesity-associated cancer rates in the US. Design, Setting, and Participants: A probabilistic cohort state-transition model was used to conduct an economic evaluation of added-sugar labeling and 13 obesity-associated cancers among 235 million adults aged 20 years or older by age, sex, and race/ethnicity over a median follow-up of 34.4 years. Policy associations were considered in 2 scenarios: with consumer behaviors and with additional industry reformulation. The model integrated nationally representative population demographics, diet, and cancer statistics; associations of policy intervention with diet, diet change and body mass index, and body mass index with cancer risk; and policy and health-related costs from established sources. Data were analyzed from January 8, 2019, to May 6, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Net costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio were estimated from societal and health care perspectives. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses incorporated uncertainty in input parameters and generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Results: Based on consumer behaviors, the policy was associated with a reduction of 30 000 (95% UI, 21 600-39 300) new cancer cases and 17 100 (95% UI, 12 400-22 700) cancer deaths, a gain of 116 000 (95% UI, 83 800-153 000) quality-adjusted life-years, and a saving of $1600 million (95% UI, $1190 million-$2030 million) in medical costs associated with cancer care among US adults over a lifetime. The policy was associated with a savings of $704 million (95% UI, $44.5 million-$1450 million) from the societal perspective and $1590 million (95% UI, $1180 million-$2020 million) from the health care perspective. Additional industry reformulation to reduce added-sugar amounts in packaged foods and beverages would double the impact. Greater health gains and cost savings were expected among young adults, women, and non-Hispanic Black individuals than other population subgroups. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that the added-sugar labeling is associated with reduced costs and lower rates of obesity-associated cancers. Policymakers may consider and prioritize nutrition policies for cancer prevention in the US.

Effect of reducing ultraprocessed food consumption on obesity among US children and adolescents aged 7-18 years: evidence from a simulation model.

BACKGROUND: Children and adolescents in the USA consume large amounts of daily calories from ultraprocessed foods (UPFs). Recent evidence links UPF consumption to increased body fat in youth. We aimed to estimate the potential impact of reducing UPF consumption on childhood obesity rate in the USA. METHODS: We developed a microsimulation model to project the effect of reducing UPF consumption in children's diet on reducing the prevalence of overweight or obesity among US youth. The model incorporated nationally representative data on body mass index (BMI) percentile and dietary intake of 5804 children and adolescents aged 7-18 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2011-2016, and the effect of reducing UPF consumption on calorie intake from a recent randomised controlled trial. Uncertainties of model inputs were incorporated using probabilistic sensitivity analysis with 1000 simulations. RESULTS: Reducing UPFs in children's diet was estimated to result in a median of -2.09 kg/m2 (95% uncertainty interval -3.21 to -0.80) reduction in BMI among children and adolescents aged 7-18 years. The median prevalence of overweight (BMI percentile ≥85th) and obesity (BMI percentile ≥95th percentile) was reduced from 37.0% (35.9%, 38.1%) to 20.9% (15.1%, 29.9%) and from 20.1% (19.2%, 21.0%) to 11.0% (7.86%, 15.8%), respectively. Larger BMI and weight reductions were seen among boys than girls, adolescents than children, non-Hispanic black and Hispanic youth than non-Hispanic white youth, and those with lower levels of parental education and family income. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing UPF consumption in children's diet has the potential to substantially reduce childhood obesity rate among children and adolescents in the USA.

Trends and sociodemographic disparities in sugary drink consumption among adults in New York City, 2009-2017.

Despite efforts to decrease sugary drink consumption, sugary drinks remain the largest single source of added sugars in diets in the United States. This study aimed to examine trends in sugary drink consumption among adults in New York City (NYC) over the past decade by key sociodemographic factors. We used data from the 2009-2017 NYC Community Health Survey to examine trends in sugary drink consumption overall, and across different age, gender, and racial/ethnic subgroups. We conducted a test of trend to examine the significance of change in mean sugary drink consumption over time. We also conducted multiple zero-inflated negative binomial regression to identify the association between different sociodemographic and neighborhood factors and sugary drink consumption. Sugary drink consumption decreased from 2009 to 2014 from 0.97 to 0.69 servings per day (p < 0.001), but then plateaued from 2014 to 2017 (p = 0.01). Although decreases were observed across all age, gender and racial/ethnic subgroups, the largest decreases over this time period were observed among 18-24 year old (1.75 to 1.22 servings per day, p < 0.001); men (1.12 to 0.86 servings per day, p < 0.001); Blacks (1.45 to 1.14 servings per day, p < 0.001); and Hispanics (1.26 to 0.86 servings per day, p < 0.001). Despite these decreases, actual mean consumption remains highest in these same sociodemographic subgroups. Although overall sugary drink consumption has been declining, the decline has slowed in more recent years. Further, certain age, gender and racial/ethnic groups still consume disproportionately more sugary drinks than others. More research is needed to understand and address the root causes of disparities in sugary drink consumption.

WIC Food Package Changes: Trends in Childhood Obesity Prevalence.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the association of the 2009 changes to the US Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) food package and childhood obesity trends. We hypothesized that the food package change reduced obesity among children participating in WIC, a population that has been especially vulnerable to the childhood obesity epidemic. METHODS: We used an interrupted time-series design with repeated cross-sectional measurements of state-specific obesity prevalence among WIC-participating 2- to 4-year-old children from 2000 to 2014. We used multilevel linear regression models to estimate the trend in obesity prevalence for states before the WIC package revision and to test whether the trend in obesity prevalence changed after the 2009 WIC package revision, adjusting for changes in demographics. In a secondary analysis, we adjusted for changes in macrosomia and high prepregnancy BMI. RESULTS: Before the 2009 WIC food package change, the prevalence of obesity across states among 2- to 4-year-old WIC participants was increasing by 0.23 percentage points annually (95% confidence interval: 0.17 to 0.29; P < .001). After 2009, the trend was reversed (-0.34 percentage points per year; 95% confidence interval: -0.42 to -0.25; P < .001). Changes in sociodemographic and other obesity risk factors did not account for this change in the trend in obesity prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: The 2009 WIC food package change may have helped to reverse the rapid increase in obesity prevalence among WIC participants observed before the food package change.

Timely, Granular, and Actionable: Informatics in the Public Health 3.0 Era.

Ensuring the conditions for all people to be healthy, though always the core mission of public health, has evolved in approaches in response to the changing epidemiology and challenges. In the Public Health 3.0 era, multisectorial efforts are essential in addressing not only infectious or noncommunicable diseases but also upstream social determinants of health. In this article, we argue that actionable, geographically granular, and timely intelligence is an essential infrastructure for the protection of our health today. Even though local and state efforts are key, there are substantial federal roles in accelerating data access, connecting existing data systems, providing guidance, incentivizing nonproprietary analytic tools, and coordinating measures that matter most.

Public Health 3.0: A Call to Action for Public Health to Meet the Challenges of the 21st Century.

Public health is what we do together as a society to ensure the conditions in which everyone can be healthy. Although many sectors play key roles, governmental public health is an essential component. Recent stressors on public health are driving many local governments to pioneer a new Public Health 3.0 model in which leaders serve as Chief Health Strategists, partnering across multiple sectors and leveraging data and resources to address social, environmental, and economic conditions that affect health and health equity. In 2016, the US Department of Health and Human Services launched the Public Health 3.0 initiative and hosted listening sessions across the country. Local leaders and community members shared successes and provided insight on actions that would ensure a more supportive policy and resource environment to spread and scale this model. This article summarizes the key findings from those listening sessions and recommendations to achieve Public Health 3.0.

Implementation of a School Nurse-led Intervention for Children With Severe Obesity in New York City Schools.

PURPOSE: The Healthy Options and Physical Activity Program (HOP) is a school nurse-led intervention for children with severe obesity. HOP was developed by experts at the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene and implemented in New York City schools beginning in 2012. The purpose of this study was to evaluate HOP implementation with the goal of informing HOP refinement and potential future HOP dissemination. DESIGN AND METHODS: This study entailed a retrospective analysis of secondary data. Analytic methods included descriptive statistics, Wilcoxon rank sum and Chi square tests, and multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: During the 2012-2013 school year, 20,518 children were eligible for HOP. Of these, 1054 (5.1%) were enrolled in the program. On average, enrolled children attended one HOP session during the school year. Parent participation was low (3.2% of HOP sessions). Low nurse workload, low school poverty, higher grade level, higher BMI percentile, and chronic illness diagnosis were associated with student enrollment in HOP. CONCLUSIONS: As currently delivered, HOP is not likely to be efficacious. Lessons learned from this evaluation are applicable to future nurse-led obesity interventions. PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS: Prior to implementing a school nurse-led obesity intervention, nursing workload and available support must be carefully considered. Interventions should be designed to facilitate (and possibly require) parent involvement. Nurses who deliver obesity interventions may require additional training in obesity treatment. With attention to these lessons learned, evidence-based school nurse-led obesity interventions can be developed.

Prevalence of Masked Hypertension Among US Adults With Nonelevated Clinic Blood Pressure.

Masked hypertension (MHT), defined as nonelevated blood pressure (BP) in the clinic setting and elevated BP assessed by ambulatory monitoring, is associated with increased risk of target organ damage, cardiovascular disease, and mortality. Currently, no estimate of MHT prevalence exists for the general US population. After pooling data from the Masked Hypertension Study (n = 811), a cross-sectional clinical investigation of systematic differences between clinic BP and ambulatory BP (ABP) in a community sample of employed adults in the New York City metropolitan area (2005-2012), and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES; 2005-2010; n = 9,316), an ongoing nationally representative US survey, we used multiple imputation to impute ABP-defined hypertension status for NHANES participants and estimate MHT prevalence among the 139 million US adults with nonelevated clinic BP, no history of overt cardiovascular disease, and no use of antihypertensive medication. The estimated US prevalence of MHT in 2005-2010 was 12.3% of the adult population (95% confidence interval: 10.0, 14.5)-approximately 17.1 million persons aged ≥21 years. Consistent with prior research, estimated MHT prevalence was higher among older persons, males, and those with prehypertension or diabetes. To our knowledge, this study provides the first estimate of US MHT prevalence-nearly 1 in 8 adults with nonelevated clinic BP-and suggests that millions of US adults may be misclassified as not having hypertension.

Cost-effectiveness of a Nutrition Education Curriculum Intervention in Elementary Schools.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the long-term cost-effectiveness of an obesity prevention nutrition education curriculum (Food, Health, & Choices) as delivered to all New York City fifth-grade public school students over 1 year. METHODS: This study is a standard cost-effectiveness analysis from a societal perspective, with a 3% discount rate and a no-intervention comparator, as recommended by the US Panel on Cost-effectiveness in Health and Medicine. Costs of implementation, administration, and future obesity-related medical costs were included. Effectiveness was based on a cluster-randomized, controlled trial in 20 public schools during the 2012-2013 school year and linked to published estimates of childhood-to-adulthood body mass index trajectories using a decision analytic model. RESULTS: The Food, Health, & Choices intervention was estimated to cost $8,537,900 and result in 289 fewer males and 350 fewer females becoming obese (0.8% of New York City fifth-grade public school students), saving 1,599 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and $8,098,600 in direct medical costs. Food, Health, & Choices is predicted to be cost-effective at $275/QALY (95% confidence interval, -$2,576/QALY to $2,084/QALY) with estimates up to $6,029/QALY in sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: This cost-effectiveness model suggests that a nutrition education curriculum in public schools is effective and cost-effective in reducing childhood obesity, consistent with the authors' hypothesis and previous literature. Future research should assess the feasibility and sustainability of scale-up.

Nutrition Quality of US School Snack Foods: A First Look at 2011-2014 Bid Records in 8 School Districts.

BACKGROUND: As part of the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act, snacks, and desserts sold in K-12 schools as of the 2014-2015 school year are required to meet the "Smart Snacks" nutritional guidelines. Although studies exist in tracking progress in local and national efforts, the proportion of snack food procured by school districts compliant with the Smart Snacks standard prior to its full implementation is unknown. METHODS: We repurposed a previously untapped database, Interflex, of public bid records to examine the nutritional quality of snacks and desserts procured by school districts. We selected 8 school districts with at least 90% complete data each year during 2011-2012, 2012-2013, and 2013-2014 school years and at locations across different regions of the United States. We quantified the amount of calories and sugar of each product contained in the won bids based on available online sources and determined whether the produce complied with Smart Snack guidelines. RESULTS: In all 8 districts (snack expenditure analyzed ranging from $152,000 to $4.4 million), at least 50% of snack bids were compliant with the US Department of Agriculture Smart Snacks standard during the 2013-2014 school year. Across sampled districts, we observed a general trend in lower caloric density (kcal per product) and sugar density (grams of sugar per product) over a 3-year period. CONCLUSIONS: Many districts across the country have made headway in complying with the Smart Snack guidelines, though gaps remain.

Redrawing the US Obesity Landscape: Bias-Corrected Estimates of State-Specific Adult Obesity Prevalence.

BACKGROUND: State-level estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) underestimate the obesity epidemic because they use self-reported height and weight. We describe a novel bias-correction method and produce corrected state-level estimates of obesity and severe obesity. METHODS: Using non-parametric statistical matching, we adjusted self-reported data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) 2013 (n = 386,795) using measured data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (n = 16,924). We validated our national estimates against NHANES and estimated bias-corrected state-specific prevalence of obesity (BMI≥30) and severe obesity (BMI≥35). We compared these results with previous adjustment methods. RESULTS: Compared to NHANES, self-reported BRFSS data underestimated national prevalence of obesity by 16% (28.67% vs 34.01%), and severe obesity by 23% (11.03% vs 14.26%). Our method was not significantly different from NHANES for obesity or severe obesity, while previous methods underestimated both. Only four states had a corrected obesity prevalence below 30%, with four exceeding 40%-in contrast, most states were below 30% in CDC maps. CONCLUSIONS: Twelve million adults with obesity (including 6.7 million with severe obesity) were misclassified by CDC state-level estimates. Previous bias-correction methods also resulted in underestimates. Accurate state-level estimates are necessary to plan for resources to address the obesity epidemic.

Deconstructing race and gender differences in adolescent obesity: Oaxaca-blinder decomposition.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze sources of racial and gender disparities in adolescent obesity prevalence in the United States using Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition. METHODS: Data were obtained from the National Youth Physical Activity and Nutrition Study, a 2010 nationally representative study of 9th-12th grade students. Obesity status was determined from objective height and weight data; weight-related behaviors and school, home, and environmental data were collected via questionnaire. Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition was used to independently analyze racial and gender obesity prevalence differences (PD), i.e., comparing Black girls to White girls, and Black girls to Black boys. RESULTS: Overall, measured characteristics accounted for 46.8% of the racial PD but only 11.9% of the gender PD. Racial PD was associated with Black girls having less fruit/vegetable access at home, obtaining lunch at school more often, and playing fewer sports than White girls. Gender PD was associated with differential associations between physical activity (PA) measures-including total activities in the past year and days of moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) in the past week-and obesity. CONCLUSIONS: School lunch and home food environmental variables accounted for racial disparities, but not gender disparities, in obesity prevalence. Gender differences in mechanisms between PA and obesity should be explored further.